March 2024 Market Report

Market Snapshot

Interest rates have been up for more than a year now. Right now, they're at 6.8%, and last year, they were nearly the same at 6.4%. Two years ago, they were at 3%, and five months ago, they reached 8%. So, if we look at the same month, we can see that interest rates are similar. But what happened to the Oahu real estate market? That big sale everyone was hoping for has already happened, and prices are starting to go up even though interest rates haven't changed from a year ago.

Many people thought that higher interest rates would crash the Oahu real estate market, but it didn't because it didn't bring more houses on the market. Most people have low-interest mortgages and have made a lot of money from the market going up.

Market Overview

The spring season didn't start off strong. In March, sales of single-family homes went down by 2.5% compared to last year, and condo sales dropped by 22.5%.  The median sales price for single-family homes went up to $1,100,000, which is 1.5% higher than last year. On the other hand, condos went down in price to $500,000, which is 6.7% lower than the record-high price of $536,000 from last March.

In March 2024, it took less time to sell single-family homes, going from 36 days to 31 days. But condos took a bit longer to sell, going from 24 days to 29 days. Still, people were interested in buying single-family homes, with 280 sales waiting to close, which is 8.5% more than last year. Condos had about the same number of sales waiting to close as last year, with 439 pending sales, just 1.1% less than last March.

March 2023 vs March 2024

Shifts in Sales Reflect Buyer Preferences and Affordability Trends

In March, there was an increase in sales for single-family homes priced at $899,999 and below, with 70 sales. This was a 6.1% increase from the 66 sales last March. Homes in this price range tend to be more accessible to a wider range of buyers, including first-time homeowners or those looking to downsize. However, there was a significant decrease in sales for homes priced between $900,000 and $999,999, down 28.1% from a year ago, with 9 fewer sales.

For condos, there was an increase in sales in the $200,000 to $399,999 range, up by 11.8% or 10 sales. These condos might be appealing to buyers for various reasons. They could be a great option for investors, young professionals, or those looking for a second home. Plus, lower-priced condos often come with more manageable monthly payments and maintenance costs, which can be very attractive. On the other hand, condos priced at  $1,000,000 and above, dropped from 52 sales last March to just 25 sales this year, a decrease of 51.9%. Sales in the $400,000 to $799,999 range also fell by 28.5% compared to last year.

Notable Changes in Pending Sales, Asking Prices, and New Listings

In March, there were some interesting shifts in the real estate market worth noting. For sellers of single-family homes priced between $800,000 and $999,999, it was a promising month, with a significant increase in contract signings—81 sales pending, marking a 15.7% jump from last year. Similarly, condos priced from $300,000 to $599,999 made up almost half of the pending sales for the month, offering a variety of options for buyers.

However, the dynamics of pricing were slightly different. About 23% of single-family home sales closed above the original asking price, indicating continued competition among buyers. Although this figure was slightly lower than last year's 24%, it's still noteworthy for sellers seeking favorable deals. On the other hand, the number of condos selling above asking price decreased to 18% from 21% compared to the same time last year. This could suggest a more balanced market for condo buyers, potentially offering more negotiating power.

In terms of new listings, the single-family home market saw a small decrease, with 291 new listings, down by only 0.7% from last year. While this might signal slightly less inventory for buyers, it could also mean less competition for sellers. Conversely, condos saw a notable increase, adding 647 new listings, which is up by 22.1%. This influx of new listings provides buyers with more options and potentially more negotiating leverage.

Overall, for the first quarter of the year, both markets saw an increase in new listings compared to last year. Single-family homes were up by 9.7%, and condos saw a more significant rise of 16.2%. This uptick in inventory could offer buyers more choices and potentially relieve some of the pressure on pricing.

Surge in Single-Family Homes and Condos Offers Buyers More Options

In March, we saw a notable uptick in the number of single-family homes available on the market, marking a 7.4% increase compared to the previous month. This rise was particularly prominent in the higher price brackets, with homes priced at $1,600,000 and above experiencing a substantial 23.2% increase, and those priced between $1,000,000 and $1,599,999 seeing a solid 9.2% climb. On the flip side, the inventory for homes priced at $999,999 and below saw a decrease of 7.5%.

In the condo market, there was a significant 29.6% increase in active listings compared to the previous year, offering buyers a wider selection. Across most price ranges, there were notable increases. For instance, the $300,000 to $499,999 range saw a staggering 84.9% surge, with 464 units available compared to 251 a year ago. This trend indicates a more favorable market for buyers, with increased options and inventory to choose from.

Oahu Local Market Statistics

In March 2024, the total sales for single-family homes were 230, marking a slight decrease of 2.5% from the 236 sales recorded in March 2023. Additionally, the median prices for these single-family homes witnessed an increase of 1.5% compared to the previous year. 

Condos also experienced a decrease of 22.5% in sales, with 344 closed sales in March  2024 as opposed to 444 in March  2023. Condos also saw a decrease of 6.7% in median sales price in March 2024.